ABSTRACT
Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models of an aircraft cabin and an indoor commercial space (ICS) were used to characterize the spread of aerosols generated by a coughing or breathing person suffering from a respiratory illness. Occupant exposure to these aerosols was then compared between the ICS and the aircraftcabin. The lifetime of the aerosols, system designs and airflow patterns that reduce their concentration over time were also examined. Differences between steady state and well-mixed conditions were identified and comparisons made between the model environments. The CFD analysis results were also compared to empirical data from a U.S. Transportation Command study that tracked particles introduced by simulated infectious individuals in an airplane cabin environment.
ABSTRACT
To characterize the transport of respiratory pathogens during commercial air travel, Computational Fluid Dynamics simulations were performed to track particles expelled by coughing by a passenger assigned to different seats on a Boeing 737 aircraft. Simulation data were post-processed to calculate the amounts of particles inhaled by nearby passengers. Different airflow rates were used, as well as different initial conditions to account for random fluctuations of the flow field. Overall, 80% of the particles were removed from the cabin in 1.3–2.6 min, depending on conditions, and 95% of the particles were removed in 2.4–4.6 min. Reducing airflow increased particle dispersion throughout the cabin but did not increase the highest exposure of nearby passengers. The highest exposure was 0.3% of the nonvolatile mass expelled by the cough, and the median exposure for seats within 3 feet of the cough discharge was 0.1%, which was in line with recent experimental testing.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: As an emerging virus, SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of transmission during air travel is of high interest. This paper is a retrospective estimate of the probability of an infectious passenger in the air travel system transmitting the SARS-CoV-2 virus to a fellow passenger. METHODS: Literature was reviewed from May-September 2020 to identify COVID-19 cases related to air travel. The studies were limited to publicly available literature for passengers; studies of flight crews were not reviewed. A novel quantitative approach was developed to estimate air travel transmission risk that considers secondary cases, the overall passenger population, and correction factors for asymptomatic transmission and underreporting. RESULTS: There were at least 2866 index infectious passengers documented to have passed through the air travel system in a 1.4 billion passenger population. Using correction factors, the global risk of transmission during air travel is estimated at 1:1.7 million; acknowledging that assumptions exist around case detection rate and mass screenings. Uncertainty in the correction factors and a 95% credible interval indicate risk ranges from 1 case for every 712,000 travelers to 1 case for every 8 million travelers. CONCLUSION: The risk of COVID-19 transmission on an aircraft is low, even with infectious persons onboard.